Mathematical Modeling of Overcoming the COVID-19 Pandemic and Restoring Economic Growth

A mathematical model is proposed that not only generates various scenarios of development, but also forms specific management measures aimed at suppressing the pandemic and restoring economic growth. The developed model of the mutual influence of the pandemic and the economy is not only a tool for effective and adequate forecasting, but is also capable of simulating various scenarios that may well correspond to real epidemiological processes. An advantage of the model is that the dynamics of the pandemic and GDP can be managed in practice in order to stabilize socioeconomic development.

Forecasting a Cyclical Downturn (Recession) in the US Economy Using a Mathematical Model of Hyman Minsky’s Theory of Financial Instability

By using the US economy as an example, the paper shows how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed its short-term dynamics, causing a deep crisis recession in 2020 rather than the expected short-term and shallow recession in 2022 caused by the inflation of the financial bubble during the credit expansion that followed the financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009. To predict the latter scenario, which is natural for the US economy, the authors first developed a mathematical model based on Hyman Minsky’s theory of financial instability, which can serve to manage the processes of credit expansion and contraction in an unstable economy.